GETTING BEHIND -- AND AHEAD OF -- THE NUMBERS

posted by Michael Chihak

Many politicians and civic leaders are focusing on the short-term implications of Arizona's population growth with little consideration for the bigger long-term implications.

Short term, the focus is geographic. Longer term, it will be demographic.

Perhaps they are right to focus geographically, because the numbers will drive political redistricting and set the centers of power -- or as it appears, deepen them -- for the next decade. In the last 10 years, the Phoenix metro area and Pinal County made big gains, while Tucson and rural areas had more modest growth. Thus, the shift of political power will continue toward the center of the state, with Phoenix at the nucleus.

But longer term, the implications could be much different. The Latino population is continuing to burgeon in nearly all parts of Arizona, with a 46.3 percent growth rate in the last decade. In the last 20 years, the state's Latino population has nearly tripled in number.

Within that growth is a tremendous youthfulness. There are more Latino children -- those under 18 -- than white children in the state, according to the Census report. It's all but inevitable that those numbers will contribute to many more Latino births and more rapid Latino population growth in the next 10 years, 20 years and beyond.

It will mean steady and increasingly noticeable changes in many areas:

• In education, as more young people need schooling both in K-12 and college systems. Many public school systems in Arizona already enroll a majority of Latino students.

• In the state's job market, as more young people seek work, some without the skills that the state's job development strategy says are necessary to transform Arizona from low-wage to high-tech.

• In state politics as pockets of heavily Latino voters elect more of their own to public office. Even now, the 2010 Census numbers show the state could have three majority Latino congressional districts, depending on how the boundaries are drawn. Experts acknowledge that Latino political power will lag Latino population growth.

• In economics, as more businesses adopt or expand their Latino business strategies, not only for how they make, market and sell their goods and services, but also for whom they hire. Latinos constitute a small but rapidly growing part of the Arizona middle class.

Inevitably, Arizona's population will be a majority Latino -- again, by the way; it was so as recently as 1900. At the current growth rate, that could take 30 years. But given the relationship between the youthfulness of the Latino population and the aging of the white population, it could come sooner.

Leaders in business, politics and civic life who recognize this and plan strategically for it will remain in the forefront of shaping the state's future for the better.

Friday's Arizona Week will explore these implications and more through interviews with business, academic and political leaders and expert journalists.