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DEBT CEILING: 'WE DODGED BULLET,' BUT ...

A top Arizona economist says the federal debt-ceiling issues that were temporarily settled this week may have contributed to a continuance of the weak economic recovery.

"Bottom line: We dodged a bullet," Jim Rounds said in an e-mail. Rounds is economist and senior vice president at Elliott D. Pollack & Co. in Scottsdale. He tracks Arizona's and the nation's economic indicators to help businesses set their plans and strategies.

"Shocks like the debt-ceiling issue have more of an impact when the economy is weak," Rounds said in his e-mail. "While a resolution was agreed upon, there were still some psychological impacts in the economy. Businesses became a bit more scared to invest and consumers became a bit more scared to spend."

"This may have set us back a good three months to half of a year in the recovery," he continued. "But, the broad array of economic data suggests no 'double dip', just a continued really weak recovery."

On Friday's Arizona Week, we will look at the broader economic implications of the debt-ceiling issue for Arizona, by speaking with a business and entrepreneurial specialist from the Thunderbird School for Global Management in Phoenix and with other economic and financial experts.


IN AND OUT AT THE CAPITOL

Since Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords was wounded on January 8th, other members of Congress have been working on her behalf. Provisions of bills she has championed in the past have been folded into other legislation, a handful of lawmakers have traveled to Congressional District 8 to hold hearings and listening sessions about military bases and the border, and some have even sponsored bills.

Representative Adam Smith (D-WA,9) filed a bill on behalf of Giffords earlier this year that would move the Defense Department away from dependence on fossil fuels. Even though, that was a pet project of Giffords in the past she did not sign on as a co-sponsor during her visit to Washington, DC earlier this week. In an email, her staff said it was a “brief trip” and she was there only to vote “on a specific bill.”


IF GIFFORDS IS IN, ANTENORI IS OUT

Republican Arizona state Sen. Frank Antenori has openly mused about the idea of running for Congress from Southern Arizona's 8th District.

That seat is now held by Democrat Gabrielle Giffords, who is recovering from a gunshot wound to the head in January. She appeared for the House of Representatives debt-ceiling vote on Monday, fueling speculation that she will continue pursuing her political career.

Antenori has said all along that he won't run if Giffords seeks reelection. He reiterated that in comments published this week by the Arizona Capitol Times, saying that he took her appearance on the House floor Monday as a sign she will be back.

From the Capitol Times:

*She’ll be hard to beat, Antenori said. Even if she didn’t have an outpouring of sympathy from the shooting, she would have been a tough challenge for any Republican.

But if and when she hits the campaign trail, he said, Giffords will have to answer a lot of the questions that people are asking today about whether she’s capable of fully carrying out her duties as a member of Congress.

“I think that will be something that comes out during the campaign, if somebody runs against her,” Antenori said. But, he added, “The name recognition and the plight that she faced … is going to be too much for anyone to overcome.”*


QUESTIONS ABOUND IN FED DEBT-CEILING 'SOLUTION'

Questions about the effects of the federal action on the deficit and debt ceiling will be posed on Friday's Arizona Week to economists and financial experts in Arizona.

Here's some of what we plan to ask:

  • How will spending reductions affect Arizona's economy?

  • Will there be an impact on state social services?

  • The deal eventually could include defense spending cuts. Could they affect Arizona military installations and defense contractors?

  • Will federal spending reductions mean governmental agency layoffs? If so, how will they affect the jo market in Arizona?

  • How dependent is Arizona's economy and job market on what happens ast the federal level?

Watch Friday for answers to these questions and more.


ANN DAY NOT RUNNING

After more than two decades in public office Ann Day has announced she is not running when her term is up in 2012. In addition to serving on the Pima County Board of Supervisors, Day spent a decade in the Arizona Legislature.

Day grew up on a cattle ranch in Southern Arizona along with her brother Alan and her sister, retired Associate Justice Sandra Day O’Connor.


GIFFORDS VOTES, RETURNS TO TWITTER

U.S. Rep. Gabrielle Giffords' voted Monday to raise the debt ceiling, surprising many of her colleagues by appearing on the House floor for the vote.

She's been out of the public eye except for a few occasions since she was shot through the head at a constituent event Jan. 8. Monday's vote was her first vote since the shooting. But Monday she was front and center on C-SPAN coverage of the vote, footage many other networks picked up, showing her greeting her colleagues and thanking them for their support.

Giffords sent this message on Twitter before the vote: "The #Capitol looks beautiful and I am honored to be at work tonight."

Giffords managed her own Twitter feed before the shooting, and the last tweet that she clearly wrote herself came Jan. 8. That morning, she wrote, "My 1st Congress on Your Corner starts now. Please stop by to let me know what is on your mind or tweet me later."

It was minutes later at that event a gunman shot Giffords and 18 others. Six died from their wounds.

Since then, her account has been a steady stream of messages about her congressional office's activity, but they've been written and signed by staffers.

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