AZ SENATE RACE ALREADY GETTING EXPENSIVE

posted by Michael Chihak

Campaign financing reports for U.S. Senate in Arizona show more than $3.7 million in hand for three candidates. And that's just the beginning, a political and campaign analyst predicts.

The Arizona Capitol Times reports that Republican Jeff Flake, now a member of Congress, had the most in hand as of the end of September, $2.3 million.

The Capitol Times also reports that Republican Wil Cardon had $1.1 million, including $770,000 of his own money, and Democrat Don Bivens had $325,000.

Flake brought in the most in the third quarter, $556,000. Cardon and Bivens also raised significant sums. Cardon brought in $402,000. Bivens raised $325,000 in six weeks following his candidacy announcement.

Norman J. Ornstein, a research scholar at the American Enterprise Institute and an expert on campaign financing, predicts in an interview for Friday's Arizona Week that the campaign will get much more expensive, driven perhaps by groups not directly affiliated with the candidates.

"We're going to see millions poured into advertising," Ornstein says. " ... So brace yourselves. For the commercial television stations, it's going to be a great year, because they're going to get full-priced or even premiums paid for advertising. For the rest of us, it's going to be awful."

Watch the full interview with Ornstein Friday at 8:30 p.m. MST on PBS-HD-6.

MONEY WILL MAKE 2012 CAMPAIGN UNLIKE ANY OTHER

posted by Michael Chihak

The 2012 election campaign will be like the "wild West," says political analyst and research scholar Norman J. Ornstein of the American Enterprise Institute, in Washington, D.C.

Ornstein is in Tucson this week to speak to law students at the University of Arizona about the dysfunction in American politics.

The man who wrote the book The Permanent Campaign and Its Future in 2000, accurately predicting the decade-long and ongoing trends in U.S. politics, also will appear on Arizona Week Friday evening to discuss campaign financing.

Ornstein worked with Arizona Sen. John McCain to help author the 2002 Bipartisan Campaign Finance Reform Act, more popularly known as the McCain-Feingold law. He says most of that law has been usurped by court rulings, leaving the average voter out of the loop of influence in political campaigns.

Next year's race for an open U.S. Senate seat in Arizona likely will bring "millions upon millions" of dollars in campaign contributions pouring into the state, Ornstein says. He says the balance of the Senate could ride on it, and thus both parties and their supporters will be keenly interested.

IN REDISTRICTING, COMPETITIVENESS IS AN EQUAL

posted by Michael Chihak

Republicans say the Arizona Constitution relegates competitiveness to a subordinate position as a factor in how congressional and legislative district boundaries are drawn.

Democrats say the constitution makes competitiveness equal to other requirements in redistricting.

A 2009 Arizona Supreme Court ruling supports the Democratic position.

In a case called Arizona Minority Coalition for Fair Redistricting v. Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission, the court ruled that competitiveness in redistricting is not "less mandatory than the other goals" nor can it "be relegated to a secondary role."

The court said it is equal to three other goals -- that districts be geographically compact and contiguous, that they respect communities of interest and that district lines use visible geographic features, city, town and county boundaries and undivided census tracts.

In all four instances, the court said, those goals are both mandatory and conditional, dependent upon one another and the judgments of the five members of the redistricting commission.

What is required is that they all be considered and applied in the drawing of district boundaries.

The commission's draft maps for nine congressional and 30 legislative districts are now in the public comment phase, which runs through Nov. 5.

Officials of both major political parties are having their say on the maps, mostly criticizing the commission's work as missing the mark on one point or another. Watch Arizona Week Episode 40 here for the gist of each party's argument.

REDISTRICTING: SOMETHING FOR EVERYONE TO HATE

posted by Michael Chihak

The draft legislative and congressional maps approved by the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission and now up for public scrutiny are drawing fire from nearly all quarters.

Republicans and Latinos, most of the latter being Democrats, were critical of the congressional draft map produced a week ago, as detailed in this blog on Monday.

Democrats are complaining this week -- oddly enough, on behalf of independent voters -- about the legislative draft map approved Monday on 4-1 vote of the commission.

State Democratic Party Executive Director Luis Heredia released a statement, quoted in the Arizona Capitol Times, saying :“The legislative draft map ... lacks competitive districts and is a giant step backward, as drawn. Without more competition, extremists will continue to get elected and will discourage independent voters from having any say in Arizona’s future."

The Democratic complaint could have at its source the fact that without more competitive districts, the party stands little chance of making headway in a state that has a plurality of Republicans. Next in line are independents, and as the 2011 election results showed, they are leaning Republican these days.

The draft maps now are subject to 30 days of public comment at a series of commission hearings starting today. Then, final adjustments will be made before the maps are shipped off to the U.S. Justice Department for pre-clearance under the U.S. Voting Rights Act.

AZ REDISTRICTING: LEGISLATIVE MAP COMING SOON

posted by Michael Chihak

Few people seemed happy with the results of the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission's first major effort, the congressional district draft map.

Now comes the opportunity for more unhappiness, in reaction to its efforts at a legislative district draft map, due any day now.

The commission voted 3-1, with one abstention, last week on the draft congressional map. Independent commission Chair Colleen Mathis and Democrats Jose Herrera and Linda McNulty voted in favor; Republican Richard Stertz voted against; Republican Scott Freeman abstained.

Republicans seemed the most furious over the draft map. Gov. Jan Brewer led the way, issuing a statement that called the map "gerrymandering at its worst" and accusing the commission of "neglect of duty and gross misconduct.” She threatened to go to the Legislature to seek removal of commission chair Mathis.

Latino leaders in Tucson also expressed dismay at the splitting of Tucson's community. A group called the Hispanic Coalition for Good Government wrote a letter to the commission, saying the draft congressional map means "Pima County's Hispanic community will have virtually no opportunity to elect a candidate of their (sic) choice."

Based strictly on voter registration, the new map would estasblish four strong Republican districts, two strong Democratic districts and three competitive districts.

The 2010 election gave Republicans five of Arizona's eight congressional seats and Democrats three. That's a reversal from the 2008 election in which Democrats had five and Republicans three.

THE FACE OF POVERTY: WE DON'T SEE IT

posted by Michael Chihak

A decade ago, a Tucson politician set out to do something about poverty.

The politician took aim at the poor people who populated traffic medians at city intersections, where they stationed themselves each day trying to cadge spare change from motorists.

They were a raggedy bunch in worn clothing, with sunbaked skin and unkempt hair. They were the very visible face of poverty in Tucson, and not a pretty face at that.

So this politician, on the pretext of concern for their safety, began a drive to get them off the medians. In a few months time, six of the seven City Council members voted to ban solicitation of motorists from medians.

The panhandlers quickly disappeared from the medians. They weren’t gone, though. They were simply out of sight, out of mind, at least in the city of Tucson.

They were too messy to deal with, perhaps because they reminded us that we’re a society less egalitarian than we care to admit.

That was a decade ago. Today, we likely have more poor people among us. But where are they?

Not on city medians. Rather, in line at food banks, which are overwhelmed with requests. At homeless shelters that don’t have enough room. Waiting for meals at soup kitchens where resources are stretched thin.

Governmental help is minimal. Arizona’s Department of Economic Security has closed 10 offices around the state, cut cash assistance to poor families by 20 percent and reduced the amount of time families are eligible for assistance, knocking 14,000 households off the list.

These statistics are not enough for us to know the pain, to recognize that we’re a society in which people who need help aren't getting it, although they ought to. For that, we need to see the face of poverty.

Ten years ago, we in Tucson chose to let our politicians hide that face. And now, many of us have forgotten what it looks like.