GETTING BEHIND -- AND AHEAD OF -- THE NUMBERS

posted by Michael Chihak

Many politicians and civic leaders are focusing on the short-term implications of Arizona's population growth with little consideration for the bigger long-term implications.

Short term, the focus is geographic. Longer term, it will be demographic.

Perhaps they are right to focus geographically, because the numbers will drive political redistricting and set the centers of power -- or as it appears, deepen them -- for the next decade. In the last 10 years, the Phoenix metro area and Pinal County made big gains, while Tucson and rural areas had more modest growth. Thus, the shift of political power will continue toward the center of the state, with Phoenix at the nucleus.

But longer term, the implications could be much different. The Latino population is continuing to burgeon in nearly all parts of Arizona, with a 46.3 percent growth rate in the last decade. In the last 20 years, the state's Latino population has nearly tripled in number.

Within that growth is a tremendous youthfulness. There are more Latino children -- those under 18 -- than white children in the state, according to the Census report. It's all but inevitable that those numbers will contribute to many more Latino births and more rapid Latino population growth in the next 10 years, 20 years and beyond.

It will mean steady and increasingly noticeable changes in many areas:

• In education, as more young people need schooling both in K-12 and college systems. Many public school systems in Arizona already enroll a majority of Latino students.

• In the state's job market, as more young people seek work, some without the skills that the state's job development strategy says are necessary to transform Arizona from low-wage to high-tech.

• In state politics as pockets of heavily Latino voters elect more of their own to public office. Even now, the 2010 Census numbers show the state could have three majority Latino congressional districts, depending on how the boundaries are drawn. Experts acknowledge that Latino political power will lag Latino population growth.

• In economics, as more businesses adopt or expand their Latino business strategies, not only for how they make, market and sell their goods and services, but also for whom they hire. Latinos constitute a small but rapidly growing part of the Arizona middle class.

Inevitably, Arizona's population will be a majority Latino -- again, by the way; it was so as recently as 1900. At the current growth rate, that could take 30 years. But given the relationship between the youthfulness of the Latino population and the aging of the white population, it could come sooner.

Leaders in business, politics and civic life who recognize this and plan strategically for it will remain in the forefront of shaping the state's future for the better.

Friday's Arizona Week will explore these implications and more through interviews with business, academic and political leaders and expert journalists.

LONG-TERM TRENDS OF ARIZONA LATINO POPULATION GROWTH

posted by Michael Chihak

Arizona's Latino population grew by 46.3 percent in the last decade, according to the 2010 Census figures released earlier this month.

It continued a half-century trend of Latino population growth outdistancing the growth rate of the rest of Arizona's population. It also reversed the Latino population decline seen in the first half of the 20th century, dating back to before statehood.

This Friday's Arizona Week will explore the implications of the rapid Latino growth in terms of state economics, politics and social trends.

We plan to interview academicians who study the trends and societal changes, political experts and those in the business community.

STATE CAPITOL: LET THE CHAOS CONTINUE

posted by Michael Chihak

Arizona state senators were prepared to go all night Wednesday and into the morning hours Thursday to get their version of the state budget passed. As it was, they voted on and approved the 13 appropriations bills with nearly an hour to spare on Wednesday night, finishing shortly after 11 o'clock.

Our Arizona Public Media crew headed up early Thursday to set up in a Senate conference room for interviews with two and possibly three legislators. We spoke with Senate Minority Leader David Schapira and House Appropriations Committee Chairman John Kavanagh, both of whom showed up right on time.

Senate Majority Leader Andy Biggs, who doubles as Senate Appropriations Committee chairman, was another story. He was scheduled in at 11:30 a.m., but didn't walk into the Capitol's Senate wing until nearly 1 o'clock. And then he went straight to a hearing room for an Ethics Committee meeting.

We staked out the room, asked Biggs to come visit us after, and he said he might.

When the hearing ended after just 20 minutes, the crew cranked up the lights and cameras, and we ushered Biggs into our little makeshift studio to grab off 10 or 11 minutes of discussion about the Senate's passage of the budget.

As we stretched it, Biggs leaned over to interrupt and said, "This will have to be the last question, because they already rang the bell" for the Senate floor session. We asked, he answered, and away he went.

A bit chaotic, but just the right amount of edginess to keep our whole crew on alert.

Watch the results tonight on Arizona Week, 8:30 p.m. MST on KUAT-TV Channel 6 in Tucson, 10:30 p.m. MST on KAET-TV Channel 8 in Phoenix and online at azweek.com, starting at 8:30 p.m. MST.

EDUCATION FUNDING CUTS WON'T HURT -- SCHOOLS OR ECONOMY -- GOP SAYS

posted by Michael Chihak

Gov. Jan Brewer's budget proposal released in January is serving as a fine template for the Republican-controlled state Senate and House to make adjustments, leaders of both houses' appropriations committees say.

In separate interviews for Friday's Arizona Week, Sen. Majority Leader and Appropriations Committee Chair Andy Biggs and House Appropriations Committee Chair John Kavanagh said the two houses are pretty close to agreement. They also said they think they're close to what the governor will accept.

The Senate passed its budget proposal Wednesday, adding $600 million or more in cuts to what Brewer had proposed. Biggs said the Senate plan eliminates the need for rollovers and borrowing, the "gimmicks" on which the budget has rested for several years.

Kavanagh agreed that the Senate proposal is close to what Republicans in the House will want when they take up the budget, likely as early as next week.

Then comes the negotiating with the governor, who has promised to protect educational funding as much as possible. Despite that, the Senate significantly increased the cuts both for K-12 and universities.

Those cuts won't hurt the economy, both appropriations chairs said. Biggs said the business tax cuts passed earlier are what businesses really want, and he and Kavanagh said they don't see educational quality diminishing because of the cuts.

Biggs was asked if the defection of two Republican senators in the final budget votes on Wednesday, one who opposed the universities cuts and the other the K-12 cuts, would mean disappearance of a veto-poof majority should it come to that, said: I hope we won't need it."

STATE SENATE MAY PULL AN ALL NIGHTER ON BUDGET

posted by Michael Chihak

Republican Senate Majority Leader Andy Biggs convened his Appropriations Committee this morning at the Arizona Capitol and immediately set a three-minute speaking limit for the long list of people wanting to address the budget, according to the Arizona Republic.

Biggs and the committee are taking up a dozen bills that comprise the state budgets both for the rest of this fiscal year and for 2011-12. Work on the bills could be grueling, and Senate President Russell Pearce has said the Senate will act today.

"There is a very good chance we will be here until the morning hours of Thursday, because of the budget," Senate Republican spokesman Mike Philipsen said in an e-mail earlier this week in response to an Arizona Week request to schedule an interview with Biggs.

This year's budget remains more than $500 million out of balance with three and a half months to go in the year. Biggs told the Arizona Capitol Times the Senate plans to cut $118 million, which is $46 million more than the governor wants, and to let a $374 million deficit flow over into the new year.

Then, that amount plus another $1.15 billion will be cut from 2011-12 spending to balance the budget, Biggs said.

The action will be a true balance with no rollovers, Biggs and others have said. Brewer's budget borrows money on the last day of the year, pays it back on the next day in the new fiscal year and delays an educational payment until the new fiscal year, all described as "gimmicks" to produce a balanced budget.

AZ SENATE MAY TRIGGER BUDGET SHOWDOWN

posted by Michael Chihak

Republican legislators in Arizona want more cuts than GOP Gov. Jan Brewer has proposed in her 2011-12 budget, saying the state must enter the new fiscal year without borrowing.

Brewer's budget proposal includes roughly $500 million in borrowing, or as some call it, rollovers and other gimmicks to balance the budget.

Those would include borrowing $330 million from the First Things First program this fiscal year, then repaying it right after the start of the next fiscal year. The other key figure is delaying a big payment to the state's K-12 public schools until after July 1.

Without permanent cuts or revenue increases, those rollover borrowing mechanisms would have to be repeated every year.

Brewer wants to do so this fiscal year and next, saying she is committed to keeping K-12 budget cuts to a minimum. Republican senators want education cuts to eliminate the rollovers, and pushing their budget out before there's an agreement is likely their way of forcing the issue.

Over in the House, the feeling is the same: Eliminate the borrowing rollovers. But Republicans there are mess adamant about the money coming from education, with one representative saying he doesn't care where the cuts are made, just so there's no borrowing. At the same time, House members say they aren't ready to move on a budget proposal, at least not this week.

If Senate President Russell Pearce is to be believed -- and who wouldn't given his vice grip on power in the Senate -- then the Senate's budget cut proposal due out Wednesday will lead the way and set the tone for the negotiations from this point forward.

The keys will be: How strong can Brewer stand on her desire to keep education funding where she wants it? How staunchly will she defend it, including the threat of a veto? Can the Senate and House come together on a plan that keeps their veto-proof majorities intact, if it comes to that?