BREWER: 'I DON'T WANT TO, BUT LET'S DO THIS'

posted by Michael Chihak

Gov. Jan Brewer penned an opinion piece for today's Arizona Republic calling on the Legislature to come to grips with extending unemployment benefits for the long-term jobless in the state.

"Believe me, extending unemployment assistance isn't something I want to do. In fact, the idea of anyone being on unemployment aid for nearly two full years is contrary to everything I believe as a conservative," Brewer wrote before taking a slap at President Obama's "failure to jump-start the job market."

The governor wants the Legislature to make a one-word change in Arizona's formula for unemployment payments so that 15,000 state residents who have been out of work for 18 months are eligible for another 20 weeks of pay from federal money.

Legislators are reluctant, saying they don't want to add to the federal deficit and they don't want to take an action that could lead people to be less willing to find work.

State law requires people collecting unemployment payments to be actively seeking work and to be ready and willing to accept work if offered.

Stephen Slivinski, an economist with the Goldwater Institute, argued in a blog posting this week that no unemployment extension should be granted until the state audits the system to ensure people are seeking work and to weed out ineligible people.

Brewer makes the same argument that Grand Canyon Institute Chairman George Cunningham made in an Arizona Republic opinion piece earlier this week: that the extended payments would add $3.5 million to the state's economy, at no cost to the state.

Cunningham and Slivinski will make their cases in separate interviews on Friday's Arizona Week, followed by a journalists' panel discussion of the issues.

CAN UNEMPLOYMENT BE GOOD FOR THE ECONOMY?

posted by Michael Chihak

Former Democratic legislator and state budget director George Cunningham argues in an op-ed piece in today's Arizona Republic that extending unemployment benefits would be good for Arizona's economy.

"When the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office evaluated components of the federal stimulus program from spending to tax cuts, it found extending unemployment benefits was the most effective instrument," Cunningham wrote, citing what he said are $3.2 million in weekly payments that are set to expire on Saturday.

Those payments would go in weekly increments to an estimated 15,000 Arizonans who have been out of work 18 months, the period covered by regular state and federal unemployment payment programs.

Republicans in control of the state Senate say they aren't interested in extending the benefits, for a range of reasons. One says people getting unemployment payments don't have an incentive to find work; others say that although the money used for the extended benefits is federal, it adds to the nation's overall debt.

Cunningham said in his op-ed piece that statistical modeling shows a near doubling of economic impact and that it would support for than 1,100 jobs in the state.

JOBLESS BENEFITS IN PERIL UNLESS STATE ACTS

posted by Michael Chihak

BY DIANA SOKOLOVA

Will Arizona's governor and Legislature approve an extension of unemployment benefits for an estimated 15,000 Arizonans before the deadline expires on Saturday?

Whether they act or not, Arizona Week on Friday will look at the political and economic ramifications of extending benefits for people who have been out of work at least 18 months.

Brewer has indicated she is willing to allow extension of the benefits, but until now, she hasn't called the special legislative session that would be needed to change the law, because lawmakers have not agreed to vote for an extension.

Arizona’s April unemployment rate was 9.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. The rate dropped from 9.5 percent in March and 9.6 percent in February 2011. The report for May will be released on June 17.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 297,457 people were registered as unemployed in April in Arizona, down from 303,209 in March. Unemployment peaked in January at 304,828.

The bureau reported Phoenix metropolitan area unemployment at 8.1percent, Tucson 7.9 percent, Yuma 25.3 percent, Prescott 9.5 percent and Flagstaff 7.6 percent.

Weekly unemployment benefits range from $60 to $240, depending on what a person earned when employed, according to the Arizona Department of Economic Security. Total cost of the Extended Benefit Program, all federal money, is $3.5 million a week in Arizona.

Arizona provides 26 weeks of state unemployment benefits, an additional 53 weeks of federal emergency benefits and, under the Extended Benefit Program, an additional 20 weeks for the long-term unemployed. That last 20 weeks is what is in jeopardy unless new legislation is enacted.

TUCSON MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN PHOENIX?

posted by Michael Chihak

Tucson mortgage lenders probably acted more conservatively than their counterparts in Phoenix during the boom times in the real estate industry, accounting for the difference between the two metro areas in the severity of the real estate crisis.

So says Judy Lowe, Arizona's real estate commissioner. In an interview with Arizona Week, Lowe said Phoenix is worse off than Tucson, with "distressed properties" accounting for 72 percent of the metro area's housing sales. She didn't have a figure for Tucson, but said it is "not quite as bad, not quite as negative."

The difference?

Many more houses were sold in the Phoenix area than in Tucson during the height of the boom, 2005 and 2006, Lowe said. Additionally, she said: "Maybe Tucson was more conservative than the Phoenix valley in how those homeowners qualified for their mortgages."

One issue nationally during the mortgage financing crisis was that of sub-prime mortgages, awarded to people whose qualifications had not been thoroughly checked or who were allowed to take out mortgage loans at higher interest rates despite having marginal financial means.

HOME PRICE STABILITY IN ARIZONA?

posted by Michael Chihak

Some housing experts and economists say Arizona's housing market won't be back to normal for another four to five years, perhaps even longer depending on what happens with other parts of the economy.

Before normalcy, the slow-growing state must absorb nearly 100,000 houses that shouldn't be on the market now but are up for sale. That's because they were foreclosed on, their mortgages in default from owners who lost their jobs, were in over their heads or otherwise suffered the unforgiving pummeling of the financial meltdown.

If the market weren't glutted with those foreclosure sales, would it be operating at a decent pace?

That's a question we will ask Arizona Real Estate Commissioner Judy Lowe for this Friday's Arizona Week.

We also will ask her if trends she is seeing in real estate broker and agent licensing and other statistics portend any positive trends in the market, how the real estate industry may have been permanently altered by the housing bust and if she is noticing signs of stability in pricing and other aspects of the real estate market.