PEARCE RECALL LOOMS, WITH NATIONAL ATTENTION

posted by Lucy Valencia

An election that might otherwise escape much attention is the object of intense national interest and is splitting Arizona along racial and political lines.

The election will decide on the recall of Arizona Senate President Russell Pearce, the author of the anti-illegal immigration law known as SB1070. Pearce is opposed by fellow Republican Jerry Lewis, considered a moderate.

A driving force behind immigration reform, Pearce is one of Arizona’s most powerful politicians.

Supporters describe him as a principled lawmaker, trying to protect his state. His critics shun the health and education budget cuts he has passed, but set out to recall him based on his immigration stance.

As the election draws closer, Pearce has doubled-down and isn't apologizing for anything.

On Nov. 8, voters in west Mesa’s Legislative District 18 will decide between Pearce and Lewis, who is a political newcomer.

Pearce is making U.S. history as the first sitting state senate president and the first sitting state lawmaker in Arizona to face a recall.

He was reelected last November with 57 percent of the vote, but activists began asking for a recall three weeks after the legislative session started.

At the start of the recall, Pearce faced two opponents: Lewis and Olivia Cortes.

But soon, Cortes’ candidacy was challenged. People speculated she was a sham, recruited by Pearce’s supporters to snag Latino votes from Lewis.

In court, Cortes said she did not know who paid for her signature gatherers or designed her Website, according to the Arizona Republic. She actually had not done much of her own campaigning.

A judge then agreed Pearce’s supporters had drafted Cortes in hopes of splitting votes, but that since she had done nothing wrong, Cortes could stay on the ballot.

Pearce opponents felt this was all they proof they needed to link Cortes to Pearce’s campaign, and immediately pushed the judge for a second hearing.

But before that, Cortes dropped out of the race due to “constant intimidation and harassment,” the Republic reported.

It is too late to take Cortes' name off the ballot, and some people feel this could still allow her to peel away votes from Lewis, thereby helping Pearce win.

Tune in to Arizona Week next week to hear more about the issue.

AZ SENATE RACE ALREADY GETTING EXPENSIVE

posted by Michael Chihak

Campaign financing reports for U.S. Senate in Arizona show more than $3.7 million in hand for three candidates. And that's just the beginning, a political and campaign analyst predicts.

The Arizona Capitol Times reports that Republican Jeff Flake, now a member of Congress, had the most in hand as of the end of September, $2.3 million.

The Capitol Times also reports that Republican Wil Cardon had $1.1 million, including $770,000 of his own money, and Democrat Don Bivens had $325,000.

Flake brought in the most in the third quarter, $556,000. Cardon and Bivens also raised significant sums. Cardon brought in $402,000. Bivens raised $325,000 in six weeks following his candidacy announcement.

Norman J. Ornstein, a research scholar at the American Enterprise Institute and an expert on campaign financing, predicts in an interview for Friday's Arizona Week that the campaign will get much more expensive, driven perhaps by groups not directly affiliated with the candidates.

"We're going to see millions poured into advertising," Ornstein says. " ... So brace yourselves. For the commercial television stations, it's going to be a great year, because they're going to get full-priced or even premiums paid for advertising. For the rest of us, it's going to be awful."

Watch the full interview with Ornstein Friday at 8:30 p.m. MST on PBS-HD-6.

MONEY WILL MAKE 2012 CAMPAIGN UNLIKE ANY OTHER

posted by Michael Chihak

The 2012 election campaign will be like the "wild West," says political analyst and research scholar Norman J. Ornstein of the American Enterprise Institute, in Washington, D.C.

Ornstein is in Tucson this week to speak to law students at the University of Arizona about the dysfunction in American politics.

The man who wrote the book The Permanent Campaign and Its Future in 2000, accurately predicting the decade-long and ongoing trends in U.S. politics, also will appear on Arizona Week Friday evening to discuss campaign financing.

Ornstein worked with Arizona Sen. John McCain to help author the 2002 Bipartisan Campaign Finance Reform Act, more popularly known as the McCain-Feingold law. He says most of that law has been usurped by court rulings, leaving the average voter out of the loop of influence in political campaigns.

Next year's race for an open U.S. Senate seat in Arizona likely will bring "millions upon millions" of dollars in campaign contributions pouring into the state, Ornstein says. He says the balance of the Senate could ride on it, and thus both parties and their supporters will be keenly interested.

IN REDISTRICTING, COMPETITIVENESS IS AN EQUAL

posted by Michael Chihak

Republicans say the Arizona Constitution relegates competitiveness to a subordinate position as a factor in how congressional and legislative district boundaries are drawn.

Democrats say the constitution makes competitiveness equal to other requirements in redistricting.

A 2009 Arizona Supreme Court ruling supports the Democratic position.

In a case called Arizona Minority Coalition for Fair Redistricting v. Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission, the court ruled that competitiveness in redistricting is not "less mandatory than the other goals" nor can it "be relegated to a secondary role."

The court said it is equal to three other goals -- that districts be geographically compact and contiguous, that they respect communities of interest and that district lines use visible geographic features, city, town and county boundaries and undivided census tracts.

In all four instances, the court said, those goals are both mandatory and conditional, dependent upon one another and the judgments of the five members of the redistricting commission.

What is required is that they all be considered and applied in the drawing of district boundaries.

The commission's draft maps for nine congressional and 30 legislative districts are now in the public comment phase, which runs through Nov. 5.

Officials of both major political parties are having their say on the maps, mostly criticizing the commission's work as missing the mark on one point or another. Watch Arizona Week Episode 40 here for the gist of each party's argument.

REDISTRICTING: SOMETHING FOR EVERYONE TO HATE

posted by Michael Chihak

The draft legislative and congressional maps approved by the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission and now up for public scrutiny are drawing fire from nearly all quarters.

Republicans and Latinos, most of the latter being Democrats, were critical of the congressional draft map produced a week ago, as detailed in this blog on Monday.

Democrats are complaining this week -- oddly enough, on behalf of independent voters -- about the legislative draft map approved Monday on 4-1 vote of the commission.

State Democratic Party Executive Director Luis Heredia released a statement, quoted in the Arizona Capitol Times, saying :“The legislative draft map ... lacks competitive districts and is a giant step backward, as drawn. Without more competition, extremists will continue to get elected and will discourage independent voters from having any say in Arizona’s future."

The Democratic complaint could have at its source the fact that without more competitive districts, the party stands little chance of making headway in a state that has a plurality of Republicans. Next in line are independents, and as the 2011 election results showed, they are leaning Republican these days.

The draft maps now are subject to 30 days of public comment at a series of commission hearings starting today. Then, final adjustments will be made before the maps are shipped off to the U.S. Justice Department for pre-clearance under the U.S. Voting Rights Act.

AZ REDISTRICTING: LEGISLATIVE MAP COMING SOON

posted by Michael Chihak

Few people seemed happy with the results of the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission's first major effort, the congressional district draft map.

Now comes the opportunity for more unhappiness, in reaction to its efforts at a legislative district draft map, due any day now.

The commission voted 3-1, with one abstention, last week on the draft congressional map. Independent commission Chair Colleen Mathis and Democrats Jose Herrera and Linda McNulty voted in favor; Republican Richard Stertz voted against; Republican Scott Freeman abstained.

Republicans seemed the most furious over the draft map. Gov. Jan Brewer led the way, issuing a statement that called the map "gerrymandering at its worst" and accusing the commission of "neglect of duty and gross misconduct.” She threatened to go to the Legislature to seek removal of commission chair Mathis.

Latino leaders in Tucson also expressed dismay at the splitting of Tucson's community. A group called the Hispanic Coalition for Good Government wrote a letter to the commission, saying the draft congressional map means "Pima County's Hispanic community will have virtually no opportunity to elect a candidate of their (sic) choice."

Based strictly on voter registration, the new map would estasblish four strong Republican districts, two strong Democratic districts and three competitive districts.

The 2010 election gave Republicans five of Arizona's eight congressional seats and Democrats three. That's a reversal from the 2008 election in which Democrats had five and Republicans three.