IMMIGRATION FIGHT IS 'WAR AGAINST DEMOGRAPHICS'

posted by Michael Chihak

Latinos will have a plurality of Arizona's population by 2025 and a majority in another 10 to 15 years, a policy analyst at the Morrison Institute for Public Policy says.

Senior policy analyst Bill Hart, who studies and researches immigration and related trends for the institute at Arizona State University, said in an interview for Friday's Arizona Week that the 2010 Census numbers show the inevitability of the Latino population growth.

"It seems sometimes that the more extreme ... are waging war against demographics and against economics," Hart said referring to anti-immigrant measures that have passed and are being considered. "You just can't do that and win."

Arizona's Latino population grew by 46.3 percent, or just under 600,000 people, in the last decade. Combined with Arizona's Latino population growth in the previous decade, Latinos have nearly tripled in number since 1990.

Hart said the growth in the 1990s was driven by immigration, including a significant amount of illegal immigration. But now, because there is a large and youthful Latino population, growth will be driven forward naturally, or by birthrate, he said.

That means economic, social and political changes for the state, and it is not fully prepared to deal with them, Hart said. In education, for example, Latinos generally are lower achievers because of economics and language, yet they soon will become the driving force in the new labor pool for the state.

That's in conflict with Gov. Jan Brewer's stated goal of building an economy based on a high-wage workforce, and a high-wage workforce is one that is educated, Hart said. He said cuts to education at all levels now being debated in the Legislature, while probably necessary to an extent because of fiscal issues, will be harmful to workforce and economic development.

Hart's interview will air on Arizona Week Friday at 8:30 p.m. MST on KUAT-TV Channel 6 in Tucson and at 10:30 p.m. MST on KAET-TV Channel 8 in Phoenix. It also will be available at azweek.com starting Friday night.

QUESTIONS FOR GUESTS, JOURNALISTS ON FRIDAY'S PROGRAM

posted by Michael Chihak

Arizona Week guests discussing the growing Latino population on Friday's program will be:

• Bill Hart, senior policy analyst for the Morrison Institute for Public Policy at Arizona State University.

• Anna Ochoa O'Leary, assistant professor of Mexican American and Raza Studies at the University of Arizona.

We will ask them to describe Arizona's future with, eventually, a Latino majority population.

What will that mean for the state's economy and business climate, especially because Latinos currently lag non-Latinos in Arizona in educational attainment.

What will it mean for state institutions, most especially public schools, the community colleges and the universities?

What will be the social changes that will occur, in terms of language, the arts, community social structure and other factors?

In politics, will Latinos gain a greater voice in proportion to their swelling population numbers?

What will be the changes in Arizona politics as a result of Latino population growth?

Which will be more influential in Arizona, the fact that the Latino population is growing rapidly or that the Latino population is so youthful?

GETTING BEHIND -- AND AHEAD OF -- THE NUMBERS

posted by Michael Chihak

Many politicians and civic leaders are focusing on the short-term implications of Arizona's population growth with little consideration for the bigger long-term implications.

Short term, the focus is geographic. Longer term, it will be demographic.

Perhaps they are right to focus geographically, because the numbers will drive political redistricting and set the centers of power -- or as it appears, deepen them -- for the next decade. In the last 10 years, the Phoenix metro area and Pinal County made big gains, while Tucson and rural areas had more modest growth. Thus, the shift of political power will continue toward the center of the state, with Phoenix at the nucleus.

But longer term, the implications could be much different. The Latino population is continuing to burgeon in nearly all parts of Arizona, with a 46.3 percent growth rate in the last decade. In the last 20 years, the state's Latino population has nearly tripled in number.

Within that growth is a tremendous youthfulness. There are more Latino children -- those under 18 -- than white children in the state, according to the Census report. It's all but inevitable that those numbers will contribute to many more Latino births and more rapid Latino population growth in the next 10 years, 20 years and beyond.

It will mean steady and increasingly noticeable changes in many areas:

• In education, as more young people need schooling both in K-12 and college systems. Many public school systems in Arizona already enroll a majority of Latino students.

• In the state's job market, as more young people seek work, some without the skills that the state's job development strategy says are necessary to transform Arizona from low-wage to high-tech.

• In state politics as pockets of heavily Latino voters elect more of their own to public office. Even now, the 2010 Census numbers show the state could have three majority Latino congressional districts, depending on how the boundaries are drawn. Experts acknowledge that Latino political power will lag Latino population growth.

• In economics, as more businesses adopt or expand their Latino business strategies, not only for how they make, market and sell their goods and services, but also for whom they hire. Latinos constitute a small but rapidly growing part of the Arizona middle class.

Inevitably, Arizona's population will be a majority Latino -- again, by the way; it was so as recently as 1900. At the current growth rate, that could take 30 years. But given the relationship between the youthfulness of the Latino population and the aging of the white population, it could come sooner.

Leaders in business, politics and civic life who recognize this and plan strategically for it will remain in the forefront of shaping the state's future for the better.

Friday's Arizona Week will explore these implications and more through interviews with business, academic and political leaders and expert journalists.

LONG-TERM TRENDS OF ARIZONA LATINO POPULATION GROWTH

posted by Michael Chihak

Arizona's Latino population grew by 46.3 percent in the last decade, according to the 2010 Census figures released earlier this month.

It continued a half-century trend of Latino population growth outdistancing the growth rate of the rest of Arizona's population. It also reversed the Latino population decline seen in the first half of the 20th century, dating back to before statehood.

This Friday's Arizona Week will explore the implications of the rapid Latino growth in terms of state economics, politics and social trends.

We plan to interview academicians who study the trends and societal changes, political experts and those in the business community.

STATE CAPITOL: LET THE CHAOS CONTINUE

posted by Michael Chihak

Arizona state senators were prepared to go all night Wednesday and into the morning hours Thursday to get their version of the state budget passed. As it was, they voted on and approved the 13 appropriations bills with nearly an hour to spare on Wednesday night, finishing shortly after 11 o'clock.

Our Arizona Public Media crew headed up early Thursday to set up in a Senate conference room for interviews with two and possibly three legislators. We spoke with Senate Minority Leader David Schapira and House Appropriations Committee Chairman John Kavanagh, both of whom showed up right on time.

Senate Majority Leader Andy Biggs, who doubles as Senate Appropriations Committee chairman, was another story. He was scheduled in at 11:30 a.m., but didn't walk into the Capitol's Senate wing until nearly 1 o'clock. And then he went straight to a hearing room for an Ethics Committee meeting.

We staked out the room, asked Biggs to come visit us after, and he said he might.

When the hearing ended after just 20 minutes, the crew cranked up the lights and cameras, and we ushered Biggs into our little makeshift studio to grab off 10 or 11 minutes of discussion about the Senate's passage of the budget.

As we stretched it, Biggs leaned over to interrupt and said, "This will have to be the last question, because they already rang the bell" for the Senate floor session. We asked, he answered, and away he went.

A bit chaotic, but just the right amount of edginess to keep our whole crew on alert.

Watch the results tonight on Arizona Week, 8:30 p.m. MST on KUAT-TV Channel 6 in Tucson, 10:30 p.m. MST on KAET-TV Channel 8 in Phoenix and online at azweek.com, starting at 8:30 p.m. MST.

EDUCATION FUNDING CUTS WON'T HURT -- SCHOOLS OR ECONOMY -- GOP SAYS

posted by Michael Chihak

Gov. Jan Brewer's budget proposal released in January is serving as a fine template for the Republican-controlled state Senate and House to make adjustments, leaders of both houses' appropriations committees say.

In separate interviews for Friday's Arizona Week, Sen. Majority Leader and Appropriations Committee Chair Andy Biggs and House Appropriations Committee Chair John Kavanagh said the two houses are pretty close to agreement. They also said they think they're close to what the governor will accept.

The Senate passed its budget proposal Wednesday, adding $600 million or more in cuts to what Brewer had proposed. Biggs said the Senate plan eliminates the need for rollovers and borrowing, the "gimmicks" on which the budget has rested for several years.

Kavanagh agreed that the Senate proposal is close to what Republicans in the House will want when they take up the budget, likely as early as next week.

Then comes the negotiating with the governor, who has promised to protect educational funding as much as possible. Despite that, the Senate significantly increased the cuts both for K-12 and universities.

Those cuts won't hurt the economy, both appropriations chairs said. Biggs said the business tax cuts passed earlier are what businesses really want, and he and Kavanagh said they don't see educational quality diminishing because of the cuts.

Biggs was asked if the defection of two Republican senators in the final budget votes on Wednesday, one who opposed the universities cuts and the other the K-12 cuts, would mean disappearance of a veto-poof majority should it come to that, said: I hope we won't need it."