THE PERILS OF NOT-SO-LIVE TELEVISION

posted by Michael Chihak

A better scenario could not be produced than the one that has come about for Arizona Week's episode for tonight.

We're tackling the hot topic of extending unemployment benefits in the state, an issue that affects 15,000 unemployed people now and perhaps double that many later this year. Those are people for whom the 79 weeks of state and federal jobless payments have or are about to run out.

Gov. Jan Brewer called the Legislature into special session for today to make a one-word change in state law to allow the benefits to be extended another 20 weeks, at a cost to the federal -- not state -- government of $3.2 million a week.

Legislative leaders acted today as if they had been dragged to their seats, and in fact a number didn't show up for the hastily called session, probably because they had made other plans. The House convened and recessed first, and the Senate, after a good bit of political rancor and rhetoric, recessed a bit later.

Both will be back Monday at 1:30, and that means benefits will run out, on Saturday, for those long-term unemployed.

The good news is that for Arizona Week, we can have a timely and lively discussion of what's happened so far and what might happen next week, without worry that it will be usurped by on-rushing political news.

DO THE UNEMPLOYED GET BUSY AS BENEFITS WANE?

posted by Michael Chihak

Economic analysis exists to show that people take longer to find new jobs when they are receiving unemployment payments.

That is according to Stephen Slivinski, a senior economist with the Goldwater Institute, a conservative think tank. "Studies show that people put off their search for work until their benefits are about to run out," Slivinski said. He will expand on his comments on Arizona Week Friday.

Meantime, George Cunningham, chair of the Grand Canyon Institute, which describes itself as a centrist think tank, said the payments are needed to bridge people to new jobs and to boost the economy. "This is not about lazy people, this is not about people with entitlement. This is about economics, this is about bringing money into this state.”

Cunningham, also on Arizona Week Friday, argued that the multiplier effect of infusing money into the economy would make the 20 extra weeks of benefits being considered for out-of-work Arizonans worth more than $167 million to the state's economy.

Slivinski said even if such payments are approved, they shouldn't come before an audit to show that people are complying and the money is being properly spent.

BREWER: 'I DON'T WANT TO, BUT LET'S DO THIS'

posted by Michael Chihak

Gov. Jan Brewer penned an opinion piece for today's Arizona Republic calling on the Legislature to come to grips with extending unemployment benefits for the long-term jobless in the state.

"Believe me, extending unemployment assistance isn't something I want to do. In fact, the idea of anyone being on unemployment aid for nearly two full years is contrary to everything I believe as a conservative," Brewer wrote before taking a slap at President Obama's "failure to jump-start the job market."

The governor wants the Legislature to make a one-word change in Arizona's formula for unemployment payments so that 15,000 state residents who have been out of work for 18 months are eligible for another 20 weeks of pay from federal money.

Legislators are reluctant, saying they don't want to add to the federal deficit and they don't want to take an action that could lead people to be less willing to find work.

State law requires people collecting unemployment payments to be actively seeking work and to be ready and willing to accept work if offered.

Stephen Slivinski, an economist with the Goldwater Institute, argued in a blog posting this week that no unemployment extension should be granted until the state audits the system to ensure people are seeking work and to weed out ineligible people.

Brewer makes the same argument that Grand Canyon Institute Chairman George Cunningham made in an Arizona Republic opinion piece earlier this week: that the extended payments would add $3.5 million to the state's economy, at no cost to the state.

Cunningham and Slivinski will make their cases in separate interviews on Friday's Arizona Week, followed by a journalists' panel discussion of the issues.

CAN UNEMPLOYMENT BE GOOD FOR THE ECONOMY?

posted by Michael Chihak

Former Democratic legislator and state budget director George Cunningham argues in an op-ed piece in today's Arizona Republic that extending unemployment benefits would be good for Arizona's economy.

"When the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office evaluated components of the federal stimulus program from spending to tax cuts, it found extending unemployment benefits was the most effective instrument," Cunningham wrote, citing what he said are $3.2 million in weekly payments that are set to expire on Saturday.

Those payments would go in weekly increments to an estimated 15,000 Arizonans who have been out of work 18 months, the period covered by regular state and federal unemployment payment programs.

Republicans in control of the state Senate say they aren't interested in extending the benefits, for a range of reasons. One says people getting unemployment payments don't have an incentive to find work; others say that although the money used for the extended benefits is federal, it adds to the nation's overall debt.

Cunningham said in his op-ed piece that statistical modeling shows a near doubling of economic impact and that it would support for than 1,100 jobs in the state.

JOBLESS BENEFITS IN PERIL UNLESS STATE ACTS

posted by Michael Chihak

BY DIANA SOKOLOVA

Will Arizona's governor and Legislature approve an extension of unemployment benefits for an estimated 15,000 Arizonans before the deadline expires on Saturday?

Whether they act or not, Arizona Week on Friday will look at the political and economic ramifications of extending benefits for people who have been out of work at least 18 months.

Brewer has indicated she is willing to allow extension of the benefits, but until now, she hasn't called the special legislative session that would be needed to change the law, because lawmakers have not agreed to vote for an extension.

Arizona’s April unemployment rate was 9.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. The rate dropped from 9.5 percent in March and 9.6 percent in February 2011. The report for May will be released on June 17.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 297,457 people were registered as unemployed in April in Arizona, down from 303,209 in March. Unemployment peaked in January at 304,828.

The bureau reported Phoenix metropolitan area unemployment at 8.1percent, Tucson 7.9 percent, Yuma 25.3 percent, Prescott 9.5 percent and Flagstaff 7.6 percent.

Weekly unemployment benefits range from $60 to $240, depending on what a person earned when employed, according to the Arizona Department of Economic Security. Total cost of the Extended Benefit Program, all federal money, is $3.5 million a week in Arizona.

Arizona provides 26 weeks of state unemployment benefits, an additional 53 weeks of federal emergency benefits and, under the Extended Benefit Program, an additional 20 weeks for the long-term unemployed. That last 20 weeks is what is in jeopardy unless new legislation is enacted.

TUCSON MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN PHOENIX?

posted by Michael Chihak

Tucson mortgage lenders probably acted more conservatively than their counterparts in Phoenix during the boom times in the real estate industry, accounting for the difference between the two metro areas in the severity of the real estate crisis.

So says Judy Lowe, Arizona's real estate commissioner. In an interview with Arizona Week, Lowe said Phoenix is worse off than Tucson, with "distressed properties" accounting for 72 percent of the metro area's housing sales. She didn't have a figure for Tucson, but said it is "not quite as bad, not quite as negative."

The difference?

Many more houses were sold in the Phoenix area than in Tucson during the height of the boom, 2005 and 2006, Lowe said. Additionally, she said: "Maybe Tucson was more conservative than the Phoenix valley in how those homeowners qualified for their mortgages."

One issue nationally during the mortgage financing crisis was that of sub-prime mortgages, awarded to people whose qualifications had not been thoroughly checked or who were allowed to take out mortgage loans at higher interest rates despite having marginal financial means.