WATER SUPPLY: TOUGHER TIMES AHEAD

posted by Michael Chihak

Water harvesting, water rationing, a cultural shift in urban water use and even more dire steps should be expected in Arizona as water managers and politicians seek to stretch the limited water supply.

That's the picture painted by University of Arizona climatologist Gregg Garfin, who has studied drought and water flows and who consults with water officials in the state.

"We've reached actually a crossing point between supply and demand in the Colorado River, so that we're actually drawing more water off the Colorado on a year-to-year basis, Garfin said in an interview for Friday's Arizona Week broadcast.

He said that for city dwellers in Phoenix and Tucson, that will mean water rationing at times, imposition of more conservation measures, including greater limits on outdoor water use, and water harvesting, or capture of rain runoff and reuse of water.

Garfin said his research and that of others shows that Arizona is prone to droughts of 10 to 30 years over the centuries. The current dry spell started in 2000, reached its wordst in 2002 and has had only three above-average water years, Garfin said.

One of those years was this past winter, when Upper Colorado River Basin snow pack and subsequent melt off has been big enough to allow a five-year pushback of any drastic rationing measures in the state.

Most water in Arizona is still taken by agriculture, Garfin said. But he said the priority for water use when the Colorado runs low are Native American tribes first, then urban users and finally agriculture. That means agriculture would be the first to lose supply when flow is low.

Garfin's full interview and an interview with David Modeer, general manager of the Central Arizona Project, will be featured on Friday's Arizona Week, 8:30 p.m. MST on PBS-HD Channel 6.

RISING TEMPS AND DESERT WATER MANAGEMENT

posted by Michael Chihak

Drought and the desert go hand in hand, yet the most recent drought in Arizona had a characteristic unlike any other in the last 100 years: higher temperatures through the duration of the dry period, starting around 2000, a University of Arizona scientist says.

"I've researched all droughts (in Arizona) of the 20th century, and I found that in the most recent drought, the temperatures were warmer than average," geoscientist Connie Woodhouse said in an interview with Arizona Week. "That's a characteristic not existent in earlier droughts."

The consequences are important to consider, Woodhouse said. Warmer temperatures mean increased water demand and increased evaporation, she said.

That means water managers ought to pay closer attention, and they should know that because of ongoing climate change, temperatures likely will be warmer during future droughts, Woodhouse said. She added that she knows water managers are doing a good job including climate change information in their discussions and decisions.

Woodhouse has done extensive research on Southwestern climatology and is working on a tree-ring study that should bring greater understanding to the Sonoran Desert's monsoon seasons. Data from the study, to be available within the next month, could show a correlation between summer monsoons and winter rains in the Southwest.

"We can't predict the future, but if we use the past, we can see that we've had low flows (on the Colorado River) since 2000, the first year of the latest drought," Woodhouse said.

Is that drought over now that the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation says Upper Colorado Basin snow pack was way above normal this past winter? "It depends on who you talk to," Woodhouse said.

Arizona water managers have said the big snow pack and resultant federal decision to increase the amount of water moving down the Colorado River and into Lakes Powell and Mead means there won't be a shortage at current usage levels until at least 2016.

Whether the drought has ended or not, Woodhouse had this advice for water managers in the state: "I would suggest they consider permanent ways to conserve water."

TIME'S UP ON 100-YEAR WATER SUPPLY

posted by Michael Chihak

Seeking background on Arizona's water issues is akin to seeking background on state political history. There's a lot of it, and in fact, the water issues history parallels the political history.

One year before Arizona became a state, central Arizona farmers coalesced to ensure a 100-year water supply, as documented by the Arizona Republic's Shaun McKinnon in a March 9, 2011 story. They did so by securing the construction of the Roosevelt Dam, which created the first in a series of reservoirs for their farms in what is now the sprawling Phoenix metropolitan area.

Note it was 100 years ago that they made the move to secure a 100-year water supply.

Thus, time is up.

So now what? More conservation, new water supplies, restrictions on growth? All of the above will be needed to get through the next 100 years.

In the March story, McKinnon quoted a researcher at the Morrison Institute for Public Policy, Grady Gammage Jr., as saying: "We'be probably got another 30 years to run without doing anything too dramatic," regarding water supply. "Beyond the 30-year point, if you assume we will continue to grow even close to the pace we have ... beyond 30 years, something dramatic has to happen."

Friday's Arizona Week will look at the water picture for Arizona, short-term and long-term, by speaking with the key overseer of water supply for the state, Central Arizona Project General Manager David Modeer.

We also will interview Gregg Garfin, a University of Arizona geoscientist and climate expert on long-term implications and the effects of climate change.

Republic reporter McKinnon, who covers water and environment, will appear on the journalists' panel, along with Gisela Telis, Arizona Public Media's online producer who has a science background, and Sarah Walters, meteorologist for KPNX-TV, Channel 12 in Phoenix.

PERMANENT FORECAST FOR ARIZONA: HOT, DRY

posted by Michael Chihak

Much of Arizona got a reprieve from the drought last month. No, it wasn't a big cloudburst that suddenly filled the dry arroyos and riverbeds, not to mention the once huge lakes -- Mead and Powell -- on the Colorado River.

The reprieve came in the form of a political/bureaucratic/water management decision to allow 40.5 percent more water to flow out of Lake Powell down the Colorado and into Lake Mead and beyond. From there, Arizona, California, Nevada and Mexico can use more water.

The increased flow is the result of a 4-year-old river management system agreed to by the states that use Colorado River water. It's administered by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, which has concluded based on last winter's big snow pack in the upper basin that there will be enough water.

For five years.

That means the lower basin states and Mexico get their agreed-upon allocations, without having to endure cutbacks and the possibility of rationing, for the next five years.

What will happen after that? Rainfall, the future snow pack, population growth and other factors will determine it. But one thing is for certain.

We'll still be in a desert.

Arizona Week on Friday at 8:30 p.m. MST on PBS-HD will delve into short-term water management and supply issues and the long-term outlook.

TAKING THE EDGE OFF HARD NEWS

posted by Michael Chihak

Sandra Martinez was born in Mexico, came to the United States at age 4 and moved to the Phoenix area at age 11. From the time she arrived in the Valley of the Sun, she had her eye on college.

But other things came along -- two children, for example. Her boys are now 12 and 9, and they will celebrate next week with her and her husband when Martinez gets her bachelor's degree in communication from ASU.

She enrolled five years ago, determined to better her life and set an example for her children that getting an education is the key to success in life.

"My 12-year-old told me when I started my education at ASU, I started with one class," Martinez said in an interview for Friday's Arizona Week. "I did find it very intimidating coming back after so many years. He told me, 'Wow, I'm going to get my Ph.D. before you at that rate.' So I had to kick it up a notch.

"I think with that they have kept me going and inspired me to take it on and finish it within five years."

Martinez works in the ASU business office working on student accounts. She hopes to continue that work after graduating, but said she will be happy with anything in the world of higher education, where she can help others achieve the dream she has worked hard for.

JOB ACTIVITY FOR CLASS OF '11 LOOKS STRONGER

posted by Michael Chihak

The numbers on college campus job recruitment in Arizona this year are looking good so far, but the final and most significant numbers -- how many grads got job offers -- aren't in yet.

But there is higher hope this year than for any in the last thee years, UA Career Services Director Eileen McGarry told Arizona Week.

McGarry said the Eller College of Management has reported soon-to-graduate business majors getting three times the offers that came in the last couple of years.

She also said unique job listings on campus were up 12 percent from the previous year, internships rose 55 percent and campus interviewing was up 26 percent.

Businesses looking to hire are attracted to the UA because of the quality of students, McGarry said. They have well developed skills, leadership abilities and a well-rounded education, she said.

Business, engineering and the hard sciences are most attractibve, but social science majors also receive attention because of the broad nature of their education and the thinking skills it develops in them, McGarry said.

Her interview will be part of Friday's Arizona Week broadcast, at 8:30 p.m. on PBS-HD and at www.azweek.com.