AZ REDISTRICTING'S BIG HANGUP COULD BE INDEPENDENT VOTERS

posted by Michael Chihak

Independent voters in Arizona now outnumber Democrats and are closing in on Republicans. In short, neither major party has anywhere near a majority of registered voters in the state.

The independent registration factor could well be a significant hangup for the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission as it begins its work. The commission will meet Thursday, for the second time since its formation, to continue administratively organizing.

The hard work -- taking on the mathematics, the geographic considerations, local political boundaries, the communities of interest and the competitiveness -- will begin soon.

Adolfo Echeveste, a Tempe resident who was the commission's first executive director starting in 2001, said in an interview for Arizona Week for Friday's program that solving the conundrum of the growing independent voter bloc will be important.

He said it isn't all in the hands of the commission, which can help allocate independent registered voters throughout the political districts. But without an open primary that allows ay voter to vote for any candidate, independent voters will continue to have political influence that is far less than their expanding numbers.

Echeveste said he likes the newly adopted California System, in which open primaries will allow the top two vote getters, regardless of party affiliation, to face one another in a runoff election.

Unless and until that occurs, the competitiveness called for in the Arizona Constitution in the drawing of district boundaries will be very difficult to achieve. That's because one or another of the two major parties will continue to hold sway through the advantage that the current primary system affords them.

AZ REDISTRICTING: WILL SEQUEL BE AS SCARY AS ORIGINAL?

posted by Michael Chihak

What a simple, seemingly ingenious idea: Take redistricting out of the hands of those with conflict-filled vested interests -- the politicians -- and let it be done independently.

That's the notion behind Proposition 106, which Arizona voters passed in 2000, with the intention of depoliticizing the redrawing of congressional and legislative district boundaries. The state constitutional amendment creates a 5-member panel -- two Republicans, two Democrats and a voter registered with no party who serves as chair -- to draw the boundaries.

Did it work last time? And can it work this time? We'll ask those two key questions of this Friday's Arizona Week guests, including former redistricting commission executive director Adolfo Echeveste and Arizona State University political science Professor Jennifer Steen.

What are the pitfalls to success? Last time, it was a series of challenges to the boundaries by vested interests filing lawsuits. It took five years to get them all settled.

This time, expect more of the same, perhaps at an even higher volume and with more tenacity, given that the vested interests are liable to have a lot of resources at their disposals. Read that: money, lots of it.

AZ Public Media colleague Christopher Conover pointed out this story on politico.com that hints at what could become a much messier process than the originators of depoliticized redistricting intended.

This means money for lawsuits, for public campaigns, for politicians themselves to continue trying to butt in on the process.

Does it portend another protracted fight over redistricting, with the many and varying interests suing and counter-suing and jabbing and counter-punching their ways to dizziness?

If that's the case, we can't be certain that the outcome would be a "win" for anyone. And all who want a democratic process would be the losers.

And the commissioners, who meet Thursday in Phoenix for the second time, haven't even gotten down to the nuts and bolts of it yet.

AZ REDISTRICTING: WHAT'S IT ALL ABOUT?

posted by Michael Chihak

Arizona Week on Friday will take an in-depth look at the process for redistricting in the state, which will drive all legislative and congressional politics for the next decade.

A five-member commission will make the decisions on redrawing the state's 30 legislative districts and nine congressional districts for use in the elections beginning next year. Arizona had eight congressional districts last decade, adding one because of increased population as measured in the 2010 Census.

That census is the basis for the redistricting, with each district intended to have roughly the same population as the next. In the case of the congressional districts, that will be about 710,000 people in each. In the case of the legislative districts, it will be about 213,700.

But it isn't a matter of simple math in the districts. Each must be drawn to conform to a series of constitutionally prescribed parameters, including compliance with the U.S. Voting Rights Act, geographical compactness and "communities of Interest".

All of the criteria are challenges, but "communities of interest" poses the biggest pitfalls.

The commission, chaired by politically independent Tucsonan Colleen Mathis, will meet Thursday morning in Phoenix to continue setting rules of procedure and reviewing the needs for staffing.

On Friday's program, we will aim to interview a political scientist, a current or former member of the commission and one of the originators of the proposition that created the process.

IMMIGRATION FIGHT IS 'WAR AGAINST DEMOGRAPHICS'

posted by Michael Chihak

Latinos will have a plurality of Arizona's population by 2025 and a majority in another 10 to 15 years, a policy analyst at the Morrison Institute for Public Policy says.

Senior policy analyst Bill Hart, who studies and researches immigration and related trends for the institute at Arizona State University, said in an interview for Friday's Arizona Week that the 2010 Census numbers show the inevitability of the Latino population growth.

"It seems sometimes that the more extreme ... are waging war against demographics and against economics," Hart said referring to anti-immigrant measures that have passed and are being considered. "You just can't do that and win."

Arizona's Latino population grew by 46.3 percent, or just under 600,000 people, in the last decade. Combined with Arizona's Latino population growth in the previous decade, Latinos have nearly tripled in number since 1990.

Hart said the growth in the 1990s was driven by immigration, including a significant amount of illegal immigration. But now, because there is a large and youthful Latino population, growth will be driven forward naturally, or by birthrate, he said.

That means economic, social and political changes for the state, and it is not fully prepared to deal with them, Hart said. In education, for example, Latinos generally are lower achievers because of economics and language, yet they soon will become the driving force in the new labor pool for the state.

That's in conflict with Gov. Jan Brewer's stated goal of building an economy based on a high-wage workforce, and a high-wage workforce is one that is educated, Hart said. He said cuts to education at all levels now being debated in the Legislature, while probably necessary to an extent because of fiscal issues, will be harmful to workforce and economic development.

Hart's interview will air on Arizona Week Friday at 8:30 p.m. MST on KUAT-TV Channel 6 in Tucson and at 10:30 p.m. MST on KAET-TV Channel 8 in Phoenix. It also will be available at azweek.com starting Friday night.

QUESTIONS FOR GUESTS, JOURNALISTS ON FRIDAY'S PROGRAM

posted by Michael Chihak

Arizona Week guests discussing the growing Latino population on Friday's program will be:

• Bill Hart, senior policy analyst for the Morrison Institute for Public Policy at Arizona State University.

• Anna Ochoa O'Leary, assistant professor of Mexican American and Raza Studies at the University of Arizona.

We will ask them to describe Arizona's future with, eventually, a Latino majority population.

What will that mean for the state's economy and business climate, especially because Latinos currently lag non-Latinos in Arizona in educational attainment.

What will it mean for state institutions, most especially public schools, the community colleges and the universities?

What will be the social changes that will occur, in terms of language, the arts, community social structure and other factors?

In politics, will Latinos gain a greater voice in proportion to their swelling population numbers?

What will be the changes in Arizona politics as a result of Latino population growth?

Which will be more influential in Arizona, the fact that the Latino population is growing rapidly or that the Latino population is so youthful?

GETTING BEHIND -- AND AHEAD OF -- THE NUMBERS

posted by Michael Chihak

Many politicians and civic leaders are focusing on the short-term implications of Arizona's population growth with little consideration for the bigger long-term implications.

Short term, the focus is geographic. Longer term, it will be demographic.

Perhaps they are right to focus geographically, because the numbers will drive political redistricting and set the centers of power -- or as it appears, deepen them -- for the next decade. In the last 10 years, the Phoenix metro area and Pinal County made big gains, while Tucson and rural areas had more modest growth. Thus, the shift of political power will continue toward the center of the state, with Phoenix at the nucleus.

But longer term, the implications could be much different. The Latino population is continuing to burgeon in nearly all parts of Arizona, with a 46.3 percent growth rate in the last decade. In the last 20 years, the state's Latino population has nearly tripled in number.

Within that growth is a tremendous youthfulness. There are more Latino children -- those under 18 -- than white children in the state, according to the Census report. It's all but inevitable that those numbers will contribute to many more Latino births and more rapid Latino population growth in the next 10 years, 20 years and beyond.

It will mean steady and increasingly noticeable changes in many areas:

• In education, as more young people need schooling both in K-12 and college systems. Many public school systems in Arizona already enroll a majority of Latino students.

• In the state's job market, as more young people seek work, some without the skills that the state's job development strategy says are necessary to transform Arizona from low-wage to high-tech.

• In state politics as pockets of heavily Latino voters elect more of their own to public office. Even now, the 2010 Census numbers show the state could have three majority Latino congressional districts, depending on how the boundaries are drawn. Experts acknowledge that Latino political power will lag Latino population growth.

• In economics, as more businesses adopt or expand their Latino business strategies, not only for how they make, market and sell their goods and services, but also for whom they hire. Latinos constitute a small but rapidly growing part of the Arizona middle class.

Inevitably, Arizona's population will be a majority Latino -- again, by the way; it was so as recently as 1900. At the current growth rate, that could take 30 years. But given the relationship between the youthfulness of the Latino population and the aging of the white population, it could come sooner.

Leaders in business, politics and civic life who recognize this and plan strategically for it will remain in the forefront of shaping the state's future for the better.

Friday's Arizona Week will explore these implications and more through interviews with business, academic and political leaders and expert journalists.