GIFFORDS' STAFF WON'T SPECULATE, UNDERSTANDABLY

posted by Michael Chihak

One by one, members of U.S. Rep. Gabrielle Giffords' staff and others in her personal and political circle declined this week to appear on camera to talk about how her circumstances were contributing to Arizona's unique political dynamic.

That slowly but surely drove this correspondent to a new level of understanding of the issues and a much broader approach to the story. For while Giffords' situation is the biggest unknown now in the state's political equation, there are other factors worth exploring and from which new information can be brought to light.

Examples on the program include two political communications specialists who think the state's 2012 campaign season and election will be affected by a strong, consistent re-election campaign from President Obama. Unlike 2008 when he demurred to opponent John McCain's favorite son status in the state, both consultants said they think Obama's campaign will pour significant resources into the state.

Another was the notion that while the media want to pick away at all the details of the Giffords' situation, Sen. Jon Kyl's retirement and other factors, that can make voters weary and even disaffected with not only the media but the electoral process.

Just two examples of how being steered off our chosen course on the topic actually got us -- and our viewers -- onto a slightly different course that presented new scenery.

Viewers will be the judge, but it looks as if discussing the situation as we were compelled to do led us to accomplish it with a minimum of speculation, putting us approximately where those in Giffords' circle are.

KYL, GIFFORDS, REDISTRICTING AND ONE MORE FACTOR

posted by Michael Chihak

President Obama may choose to target Arizona in his 2012 re-election campaign, and if so, that will add greatly to the already unusual dynamic in the state, a University of Arizona political communications expert says.

Communication Professor Kate Kenski said for Friday's Arizona Week on PBS HD that Obama's tactic in Arizona is likely to be different than in 2008, when he withdrew resources because he faced running against John McCain on McCain's turf.

That won't be the case next year, and if Obama pours some of his expected wealth of resources into the state, it could have an influence on races up and down the ballot -- Senate and Congress, Kenski said.

She said all the factors make for unusual circumstances, and would-be candidates should be focusing on grassroots organizing, putting together their campaign structures and essentially remaining somewhat low key to prevent voter burnout.

The media, too, should stay away from speculation, although it is tempting, instead focusing on current issues and then giving a thorough accounting of candidates and issues once candidates begin lining up for the races.

Her interview can be seen on PBS HD at 8:30 p.m. MST Friday and online at azweek.com.

GIFFORDS-KYL-REDISTRICTING DYNAMIC AND WHAT IT MEANS

posted by Michael Chihak

The specter of a 2012 U.S. Senate race in Arizona featuring Republican Jon Kyl and Democrat Gabrielle Giffords had people talking as far back as a year ago.

How things change. Kyl has announced he won't run for a fourth term, and Giffords is in rehabilitation for a bullet wound to the head, her political future unknown.

Those factors plus redistricting are combining to drive a unique political dynamic in the state. It's one that has left some would-be candidates flat-footed, others hesitant and everyone wishing for a crystal ball.

How the dynamic is playing out beyond the gossip and the superficial speculation and what it means to Arizona voters will be the topic of Friday's Arizona Week. On the program:

• Kate Kenski, University of Arizona communication professor whose research delves into political candidate messaging, campaign dynamics and voter behavior. Last year, she co-authored The Obama Victory: How Media, Money, and Message Shaped the 2008 Election.

• Carol E. Zimmerman, partner in Zimmerman Public Affairs where she has been involved in strategizing planning and executing political campaigns, media services and political consulting.

Analyzing and commenting will be a three-journalist panel: National Public Radio Southwest Correspondent Ted Robbins; New York Times Phoenix Bureau Chief Marc Lacey; Arizona Republic reporter Amy B. Wang, who has covered the Giffords story from Day 1.

CHANGING DIRECTIONS: AZ POLITICS, POST-SHOOTING TRAGEDY

posted by Michael Chihak

Media accounts in recent days about the pace and potential outcome of recovery for Democratic U.S. Rep. Gabrielle Giffords have engendered and added to much speculation -- read gossip -- swirling around Arizona politics this week.

Arizona Week will focus on the political story on Friday's program, looking at how the Jan. 8 shooting of Giffords and her subsequent lengthy hospital and rehabilitation stints, are driving the political dynamic in the state.

The biggest burst of political speculaton came on Monday from Newsweek magazine, which published a lengthy story headlined “What’s Really Going On With Gabby Giffords?”. The story claimed to include previously untold information about Giffords' recovery from a gunshot wound that passed through the left side of her brain.

Indeed, the story lent more insight to what the situation is with Giffords, including the statement that “a measured assessment of her progress is warranted.” Meaning that we the public may well be going too far with our own hopeful interpretations of the optimistic statements from the doctors and the visitors to her rehab room in Houston.

Most prominent among those optimists is Giffords’ husband, astronaut Mark Kelly, who has, as Newsweek pointed out, said from the beginning that he believed she would make a full recovery. But in the story, Kelly was quoted as saying that his wife’s first public appearance is “months – and not weeks – away.”

In her personal life, it would mean as Kelly and her staff have said that if Giffords does attend his shuttle launch scheduled for later this month, she won’t be seen publicly. It also means that recovery is a process that dictates the time line rather than the recoverer.

Or, for that matter, the political observers, challengers and would-be opponents to her waiting in the wings.

This and other information in the Newsweek story, speculative comments in the Arizona media and the silent but obvious impatience of those who would challenge Giffords politically next year have fueled discussion around a series of fitful -- and mostly unanswerable at the moment -- questions.

• Will she recover quickly and completely enough to run for the seat Republican Sen. Jon Kyl is leaving?

• Will she recover and then stay put in Congressional District 8, where she could face a rematch with Republican Jesse Kelly, the tea party agenda carrier whom Giffords defeated in 2010?

• Will she recover enough so that she can live some definition of a normal existence, never mind the lights-are-always-on life of a member of Congress?

People of all sorts – in her camp, in her would-be opponents’ camps and in the general public – are running in all directions with speculation.

Human nature being what it is, there’s a desire for that. But really, we must ask ourselves, is there a need for it?

CAN AZ CUT EDUCATION AND DRAW QUALITY JOBS?

posted by Michael Chihak

Employers want well-trained employees. Their employees, in turn, want good schools for their children.

And Arizona wants a strong economy, one that can sustain the growing population and bring a new kind of prosperity to its residents.

There's a tried and true formula for that. Build an educational system that can train people for high-paying jobs and that employers can count on. Employers will hire those employees, and the economy will grow and prosper.

Arizona political leaders have the vision for a prosperous state, based on an economy that eschews dependence on population growth and housing and instead looks to the growth of knowledge and technology and the relevant complementary businesses.

Just one problem in the state: The educational component has been slowly whittled away over the last decade by an ever-changing standardized testing scenario and a series of political decisions meant to challenge public schools to get better but that instead created a competing school system that's not as good.

Oh, and budget cuts. Budget cuts. Budget cuts.

Three straight years of significant cuts to educational budgets, more than $450 million for the coming fiscal year alone. That will bring the three year total of cuts to more than $1 billion.

We plan to explore the complex scenario on Friday's Arizona Week, including asking economic development leaders if they think it is a formula for success.

ADDING TO *ARIZONA WEEK*'S JOURNALISTIC RICHNESS

posted by Michael Chihak

Two experienced Arizona journalists made their Arizona Week debuts Friday, discussing the state's K-12 educational system and the big budget cuts signed into law by the governor this week.

Jim Nintzel, senior writer for the Tucson Weekly and a regular contributor to Arizona Public Media's Arizona Illustrated for many years, is one of three panelists to discuss education cuts on Arizona Week.

Kim Covington, Schools Solutions reporter for KPNX-TV 12 in Phoenix, also made her debut on the program.

Nintzel and Covington joined with Arizona Republic state capitol reporter Ginger Rough in discussing how the cuts are being received politically and what they could do not only to the educational system but to the reputations of Gov. Jan Brewer and state legislators who pushed through cuts to K-12, community colleges and the universities totaling more than $450 million for the coming fiscal year.

In its first 13 weeks, Arizona Week has brought viewers the perspectives of nearly 30 Arizona journalists. Stay tuned; there are more to come.